Technical & AI search

Core Web Vitals ROI calculator

Speed work is easy to justify with anecdotes and hard to justify with numbers. This simulator converts a Largest Contentful Paint improvement into conversions and gross profit using a published elasticity you choose yourself, and grades each metric against the official Core Web Vitals thresholds before and after.

Core Web Vitals revenue simulator

Estimate what a page-speed programme is worth. Set your current and target Largest Contentful Paint, pick the conversion elasticity for your sector, and see the revenue the improvement is likely to unlock — plus the Core Web Vitals verdict for each state.

65 %
ms
ms
ms
ms
%
%

LCP improvement

1,900 ms

Projected conversion rate

2.09 %

+15.9 % relative

Extra orders / month

343

Extra revenue / month

€29,180

Extra gross profit / month

€11,672

Extra gross profit / year

€140,066

Payback

1.5 months

Core Web Vitals verdict

MetricBeforeAfter
LCP4.2 sPoor2.3 sGood
INP320 msNeeds improvement180 msGood
CLS0.14Needs improvement0.10Good
Extra gross profit / month€11,672
Cost of the performance work€18,000

Core Web Vitals are a ranking signal, but a weak one — they break ties, they do not beat relevance. The real return on speed work is conversion, and it is largest on mobile, on long journeys and on sites that are currently poor rather than merely average. Going from 4.5 s to 2.5 s is worth far more than going from 2.5 s to 2.0 s.

How to estimate the ROI of a performance programme

  1. Use field data, not lab scores Take the 75th percentile from the Core Web Vitals report in Search Console or from the CrUX dataset.
  2. Set a target you can engineer Under 2.5 s LCP is the threshold; going below 1.5 s costs disproportionately more for less return.
  3. Choose the elasticity honestly Retail and travel show the steepest conversion response; B2B lead generation the shallowest.
  4. Weight for mobile Latency hurts mobile users disproportionately, so a mobile-heavy audience raises the return.

What the three metrics actually measure

Largest Contentful Paint is the moment the main content becomes visible; good is under 2.5 seconds at the 75th percentile of real visits. Interaction to Next Paint replaced First Input Delay in 2024 and measures how quickly the page responds to taps and clicks across the whole session; good is under 200 milliseconds. Cumulative Layout Shift measures how much the page moves under the reader's finger; good is under 0.1. The official definitions and thresholds live in Google's Web Vitals documentation.

The three fail for different reasons, which matters when scoping the work. LCP is usually a server, image or render-blocking resource problem. INP is almost always JavaScript: too much of it, running at the wrong moment, on a mid-range phone rather than the developer's laptop. CLS is layout: images without dimensions, fonts swapping, banners injected above content. A programme that treats them as one ticket usually fixes the easy one and reports success.

Field data is the only data that counts here. Lab tools simulate a device and a connection; the Chrome User Experience Report measures what your actual visitors experienced, and the two routinely disagree by a factor of two. Start from the Core Web Vitals report in Search Console, drill into the worst template, and only then open a lab tool to diagnose the cause.

Ranking signal or conversion lever?

Core Web Vitals are a confirmed ranking signal and a weak one. Google has been explicit that page experience breaks ties between results of comparable relevance rather than promoting a fast page over a more useful slow one. Any agency selling a performance sprint as a ranking strategy is overselling; any agency ignoring a poor-rated site is underselling, because the conversion effect is real and much larger.

The conversion elasticity used here — between 0.4 and 1.0 % of relative conversion movement per 100 ms of LCP — comes from repeated public measurements: Deloitte's retail study, Vodafone's LCP experiment, and the case studies collected on web.dev. The spread is wide because the effect depends on device mix, journey length and how impatient the intent is. The simulator exposes it as a choice rather than burying a single constant in the code.

The return is not linear across the range, which is the practical planning point. Moving a site from 5 seconds to 3 changes user behaviour visibly; moving from 2.2 to 1.9 rarely does, and often costs more engineering. Prioritise templates that are currently rated poor, on mobile, on the highest-traffic journeys — and check the result in field data a month later, not in a lab score on the day of the deploy.

  • Always start from field data at the 75th percentile
  • Diagnose LCP, INP and CLS as three separate problems
  • Prioritise poor-rated mobile templates on high-traffic journeys
  • Expect diminishing returns below about 2 seconds LCP
  • Verify improvements in field data after 28 days, not in a lab run
  • Treat ranking gain as a bonus; conversion is the business case

Frequently asked questions

Do Core Web Vitals affect rankings?

Yes, as part of the page experience signals, and modestly. They matter most when several results are equally relevant, and least when one result is clearly the better answer. Treat them as a hygiene requirement and a conversion lever rather than a ranking strategy.

Why does my Lighthouse score disagree with Search Console?

Because they measure different things. Lighthouse simulates one load on a throttled connection from your location; Search Console reports the 75th percentile of real Chrome users over 28 days, across every device and network they actually used. When they disagree, the field data is the one your customers experienced.

Is INP harder to fix than LCP?

Usually, yes. LCP responds to caching, image formats and removing render-blocking resources — work with clear owners. INP requires reducing and rescheduling JavaScript across third-party tags, consent managers and analytics, which touches teams outside engineering. Budget more time for it than a first estimate suggests.

Other calculators

Go deeper